Gold smugglers switching over to cigarettes, currencies

In the past 18 months, the department of revenue intelligence has seized 50 containers of cigarettes, valued at nearly Rs 200 crore

With the channel set three years ago to import gold illegally into the country not giving enough returns to cover the risk involved, operators of these channels - the smugglers, in simple words - are now increasingly switching over to illegal import of cigarettes. This is because of the "much higher RoI (return on investment)", according to intelligence officials.

The cost of a Rs 10 cigarette typically goes up to Rs 220 if imported legally. That is the margin the smugglers can corner, since they don't pay import duty. Even if they pass on some of the benefit from the evaded duty, they still make a good amount of profit.

Among other items these dealers are focusing on for unofficial imports are foreign currencies, especially those of West Asian countries.

Operators keenly look at the economic viability of a business. In gold, for example, the earlier 10 per cent duty was a major benefit. Among expenses, they had to count out an average three-four per cent hawala cost for procuring dollars from the illegal market to pay the carriers bringing gold bars, and for cost of seizures.

An average 6-10 per cent premium in 2013 and 2014 made the business very lucrative. But now, gold smuggling is becoming increasingly difficult, with the premium for physical delivery vanishing, and the risk increasing because of revenue agencies' tighter vigilance.

In 2014, the World Gold Council had estimated that unofficial imports into the country could be worth around 200 tonnes. Now, GFMS Thomson Reuters has pegged unofficial imports in 2015 at a little over 100 tonnes.

The operators, however, want to use the channel set for gold more profitably. And cigarettes, especially with a significant increase in duties, present a lucrative option.

Through seizure of imported cigarette consignments sought to be brought into the country clandestinely, without paying duties and other taxes, has increased significantly over the past year, smugglers are bringing products of top global brands more frequently.

These include the costlier ones like Davidoff, Gudang Garam, Djarum Black Slimz, Moods, Esse Lights, Dunhill Switch and Mond.

A reliable source in the know of intelligence agencies says: "Department of revenue intelligence (DRI) has seized more than 50 containers of various brands of imported cigarettes like Gudang Garam, Esse, Dunhill, etc, valued at Rs 200 crore in the past 18 months. These seizures have taken place across India. Cigarettes are usually shipped from Dubai."

"Such a huge haul was not seen previously. The reason for this are the steep import duty and local taxes on this product," said the source, adding, "what we see is that the same groups that were involved in gold smuggling earlier are now active in cigarettes now".

Syed Mahmood Ahmad, director, The Tobacco Institute of India, said: "The reported seizures reflect only the tip of the iceberg. For every seizure by enforcement agencies, there are dozens of consignments of contraband cigarettes that slip through surveillance and find their way into the market."

Euromonitor International, a global research organisation, estimated illegal cigarette imports into India in 2014 at 22.8 billion sticks, making the country the fourth-largest market globally for illegal cigarettes. In fact, industry body Ficci recently estimated that the overall market for illegal cigarettes in India now was 20.2 per cent of the cigarette industry's total size, up from 15.7 per cent in 2010, resulting in a revenue loss of Rs 9,139 crore to the national exchequer.

Ahmad said: "Over the past three-and-a-half years, on a per-unit level, excise duty and VAT on cigarettes have cumulatively gone up by 98 per cent and 124 per cent, respectively. This is exerting a pressure on the legal cigarette industry's volumes, even as illegal trade grows unabated."

Besides, with a tightening of regulations to curb the flow of unaccounted money, as well as anti-money laundering provisions, bringing West Asian currencies illegally and selling those to travellers and businessmen planning to visit those countries is also gaining ground.

Booming black market

• In the past 18 months, the department of revenue intelligence has seized 50 containers of cigarettes, valued at nearly Rs 200 crore
• Euromonitor International estimates illegal cigarette imports at 22.8 billion sticks in 2014, making India the 4th-largest illegal cigarette market in the world
• Industry body Ficci recently estimated the overall market for illegal cigarettes in India at 20.2% of the industry size, up from 15.7% in 2010
• Illegal cigarette imports have led to a revenue loss of Rs 9,139 crore (Rs 91.39 billion) to the exchequer
• Bringing West Asian currencies illegally is also gaining ground

Market crash? 5 ways to make a good fortune

Buying stocks during bad times can lead to good returns.

When investment gurus such as George Soros and Jim Rogers start saying things are looking really bad, investors need to worry.

But, then, these are also times to remember the famous saying of another investment guru, Warren Buffett: be greedy when others are fearful.

But, it isn’t easy to be greedy because investors tend to follow the herd.

The current market seems to be testing the patience of investors again. Just when things seemed to be changing after a good five-six years, global unrest can come back to plague Indian stock markets.

There are a few things that you can/should do in this market.

Don’t exit at a loss: Experts say long-term investors don’t really need to panic.

When the Sensex crashed to 8,160 in March 2009 due to global economic crisis, it was back to 14,300-level two months later in May - a recovery of 75 per cent. Within seven months, it touched 17,300-level, or 112 per cent.

In stock market, the longer the correction, bigger is the upside, says Gautam Sinha Roy, vice-president and fund manager at Motilal Oswal AMC.

Sitting out after losing money is the biggest mistake an investor can do, even for a short period.

Between October 27, 2009 and November 4, 2009, the market went up 24.93 per cent.

More recently, in September 2013, the market rose 9.67 per cent within eight trading sessions.

Buy more: A correcting market is a great opportunity to buy or even start a systematic investment plan.

Individuals can use the spare cash to invest in the market in a staggered manner. Those already in the market for three years would be sitting on a profit.

The market is still up 22 per cent since January 2013. These investors should continue their investments as usual, especially if they are investing via systematic investment plans.

You can also raise the SIP amount slightly depending on your cash flows.

If you are investing in equities directly, go for companies that you are comfortable with and whose business you understand. 

According to investment experts, amid global bad news, there are still many positives for the Indian economy.

G Chokkalingam, founder of Equinomics Research & Advisory, believes like European Union, other countries would continue with quantitative easing and postpone the current problems for another three to five years.

Changes to portfolio: In a recent report of Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, its co-head of global economics and chief Asia economist, and Ridham Desai, managing director and head of India research, say investors should be positioned in long dollar trades, consumption plays and government policy beneficiaries.

Roy of Motilal Oswal prefers sectors such as retail-oriented banks and pharma. But, he says investors need to be selective while picking stocks directly.

He also advises that investors can avoid small- and mid-cap stocks unless they find one that has high competitive advantage in its sector and also a healthy balance sheet.

Roy, who manages a multi-cap fund, has moved most of his holdings to large caps.

Asset allocation: Financial planners say the best thing to do in a falling market is follow the asset allocation strategy.

Say, your portfolio comprises 70 per cent equity and 30 per cent debt. Keep a margin of five to 10 per cent for each asset.

So, if equity allocation goes below 60 per cent, replenish your asset allocation to maintain the balance.

This will automatically tell you when to book profits and when to pour more money into an asset.

Keep cash: Chokkalingam has been telling his clients to keep around 30 per cent of portfolio in cash or liquid funds.

He says cash gives you the flexibility to invest on dips or can be used for investment opportunity that is open for a very short period. It also lowers the risk in your portfolio.

Even mutual funds sit on some cash when markets undergo correction for an extended period and deploy them slowly over time.

Whatever changes you make, do keep tax in mind.

'India best poised among emerging markets'

Despite good fundamentals, capital flows to India can dry up if investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EM) turns adverse, believes Nischal Maheshwari, head, institutional equities, Edelweiss Securities. 

Image: Domestic inflows were indeed very buoyant last year. Photograph, courtesy: BSE

 

 

In an interview with Ashley Coutinho, he says EM asset classes could rally if the pace of US Federal Reserve rate increases moderates.

Edited excerpts:

Equity markets have seen a sustained fall since March last year. What is your outlook for the year ahead?

Emerging markets (EMs) have fallen at least 25 per cent since March in dollar terms.

This is one of the steepest corrections after the Lehman crises (starting 2008).

While the China slowdown did have a role in this sell-off, I think the role of the US Fed lift-off is understated.

Last year, while the US was gearing for a lift-off, the growth of EMs was slowing, with a lot of central banks (including China's) trying to ease monetary policy.

This divergence accentuated the outflows from EMs. 

If the pace moderates of Fed rate hikes, the trend of outflows from EMs would subside and asset classes there could rally, given the sharp corrections in most of their prices.

However, the yuan devaluation poses a risk to the outlook.

How is India placed among EMs?

Given, the sharp correction in commodities and oil prices, and a lower inflation and current account deficit, India is best poised among the EMs.

However, if the Fed goes aggressive on rate hikes, it is likely to dampen the overall EM investor sentiment.

And, as we observed in 2015, despite having good fundamentals, capital flows dry up if investor sentiment towards EMs turns adverse.

What risks does a slowing China pose?

China saw unprecedented growth for the past 20 years. This has resulted in a large number of people being lifted out of poverty.

It is now a middle income economy and its demographics are deteriorating.

Hence, it is due for a structural slowdown. This could be actually good for global growth, as it reduces imbalances and keeps commodity prices in check. However, a sharp slowing does pose a risk, as it will make deleveraging difficult and cause a further slide in commodities.

What is your assessment of the December quarter results?

We expect this to be another soft quarter. In our coverage universe (excluding oil marketing companies), the (growth in) top line and profit after tax are forecast to be flat, year-on-year.

Domestic consumer discretionary and private sector banks are expected to post decent growth.

However, defensives such as consumer staples and information technology might see a fresh down-leg, with decadal low profit growth, owing to the impact of rural stress on the former and the one-off impact of the Chennai floods on the latter.

Commodities, automobile exports (Tata Motors) and public sector banks are likely to clock a soft quarter, with profits continuing to contract in teens.

It's largely the domestic institutional players that supported the market last year. Will this continue in 2016?

Domestic inflows were indeed very buoyant last year. This is perhaps due to the improvement in urban real incomes.

The subdued prospects of property markets and gold also seem to have played a part in the equity inflows.

Going into 2016, we expect these trends to continue and domestic institutional investors to continue to support the markets.

However, if the Nifty corrects by another 10 per cent from here, there could be redemptions and domestic flows could moderate.

Could last year's rally in mid-caps and small-caps sustain?

Last year, mid-caps and small-caps outperformed the Nifty (benchmark index), despite negative returns in the latter.

This is a historical anomaly. A possible reason is that mid-cap and small-cap companies are less globalised than the Nifty.

Two-thirds of Nifty revenues and half of profits come from either commodities or exports.

The poor external backdrop, accompanied by a collapse in commodity prices, resulted in a Nifty correction.

Mid-cap and small-cap companies are more domestic focused and had better earnings and performance.

This trend of small-caps outperforming large-caps is also observed in Europe, where the former have outperformed the latter by about 15 per cent.

Which sectors are you bullish on? 

For 2016, we expect urban consumption to deliver good returns.

This is because the 7th pay commission recommendations are likely to ensure demand remains intact and most of these companies also benefit from a commodity correction in the form of lower oil prices.

Companies leveraged to government capital expenditure should also deliver good returns in 2016. One should avoid commodity companies.

Manufacturing rises to four-month high in January

Firms hired additional hands to keep up with the production demand

After contracting in the previous month, manufacturing registered a four-month high growth in January following inflows of new business from both domestic and export sources, showed a widely tracked Nikkei purchasing managers'index (PMI) survey. However, investment goods output and new orders fell which may have impact on future growth of manufacturing.

However, inflationary pressures remained on upside because of which a commentator associated with PMI does not expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut the policy rate on Tuesday.

Firms hired additional hands to keep up with the production demand.

PMI rose  to 51.1 points  in January from 49.1 in December. A reading below  50 denotes contraction and one above  that is expansion.

"Alongside a resumption of output at some firms impacted by December’s flooding, manufacturers also benefited from rising inflows of new business from domestic and export clients," said Markit Economics, a compiler of PMI data.

Although the rate of expansion was only moderate, it was the sharpest signalled for four months, it added.

Both levels of production and total new business registered mild increases following contractions in December.

The consumer goods sub-sector remained the principal growth engine at the start of the year, seeing substantial expansions of both output and new orders. In contract, producers of investment goods saw output and new orders  fall, while production volumes  stagnated in the intermediate goods category.

The trend in new export order inflows strengthened during January, amid reports from companies of improved sales demand. "The level of income new export business has now risen in each of the past 28 months," Markit said.

It is here that official figures show just opposite picture. Merchandise exports contracted for 13 months  in a row till December, 2015.

Also, while PMI declined to 50.7 points in October from 51.2 points in the previous month, official figures showed that manufacturing was up almost 10 per cent in October. As such, the PMI numbers should be cautiously interpreted.

According to Markit, January saw further mild job creation in the Indian manufacturing sector with headcounts added to across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods categories.

However, January's increase in employment was insufficient to reduce the pressure on manufacturers'capacity.

Price pressures remained on the upside at the start of 2016, with input costs and output charges both rising during January.

Pollyanna De Lima said," Although the RBI is likely to continue its monetary policy loosening cycle in 2016, February's meeting will probably see the repo rate remain unchanged at 6.75 per cent as the central bank will remain wary of inflationary pressures building in the country."

Navy's action-packed prep ahead of fleet review

Preparations for the International Fleet Review that begins in Visakhapatnam from February 4 to 8 are in full swing.

A detailed security apparatus is in place to ensure smooth sailing of the mega-event, which will be attended by President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu and see participation of top naval officials across the globe.

Visakhapatnam is buzzing with excitement as residents have been thronging every available vantage point, parks and footpaths to witness the ongoing rehearsals.

Here's are few glimpses:

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Indian Navy Marine Commandos in an assault drill. Photograph: MoD Photo

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Naval P-8I patrol aircraft with MiG-29Ks. Photograph: MoD Photo

A MiG-29K deploys flares during a drill. Photograph: MoD Photo

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India's two aircraft carriers -- INS Vikramaditya and INS Viraat -- spotted together.Photograph: MoD Photo

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A Sea King helicopter executes a sea rescue. Photograph: MoD Photo

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This is how the Review Column (ships having the President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other dignitaries) shall look on the D-Day. Photograph: Captain DK Sharma/Twitter

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A Sea Harrier aircraft hovers over the RK beach. Photograph: MoD Photo

India's first aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant's new avatar!

Bajaj Auto used metal from Vikrant and processed it to be a part of 'V' motorcycle.

 

 

Bajaj Auto on Monday unveiled a 150 cc bike 'V', which contains metal from India's first aircraft carrier INS Vikrant.

The commuter segment bike is expected to be priced between Rs 60,000 to Rs 70,000 (ex-showroom Delhi).

Sales of the bike would commence from March and the final pricing would be announced at that time.

"The Bajaj V shall usher a new era in commuter motorcycling. We believe the Indian customer buying a commuter motorcycle deserves something that is substantial, solid, and which moves with a sense of purpose," Eric Vas, president (Motorcycle Business), Bajaj Auto said.

The V has been designed and built to be "invincible and will change the experience of commuter biking" much like the Pulsars changed sports biking, he added.

Bajaj Auto Managing Director Rajiv Bajaj said: "We will start with a capacity of 20,000 units month and should demand exceed that, there is no problem in enhancing the capacity further."

He added that the company would first like to focus on the domestic market for the sale of the new product.

"We would first like to focus on the domestic market. The commuter segment is very strong here with market of over five lakh units. Some time down the line we might start exporting it as well," Bajaj said.

On pricing of V, he said: "It would be between Rs 60,000 and Rs 70,000. We will announce the pricing details at the time when we start deliveries in March."

Bajaj Auto purchased the Vikrant metal and processed it to be a part of V motorcycle.

INS Vikrant was commissioned as the first aircraft carrier of Indian Navy in 1961. After years of distinguished service, it was decommissioned in January 1997 and served as a museum till 2012.

In November 2014, the aircraft carrier was dismantled and sold as scrap metal.

"We are proud that lakhs of Indian citizens can now touch the metal of the legendary INS Vikrant," Vas said. 

Global